Friday, August 26, 2016

Notes on the L.A. World Affairs Council

Notes on the L.A. World Affairs Council dinner-meeting   August 25, 2016

LAWAC President and CEO Terry McCarthy asked questions that were answered by:
UK Consul General Chris O’Connor and Joe Brusuelas, Chief Economist, RSM US LLP.

The focus of the discussion presentation was on BREXIT and moving forward. 
Many of the questions and solutions will not be known immediately.
The enormity/complexity will be solved within the two year timeframe.
It is way more than just the trading block, but involves life changes as well.
There is a sense to get to the program quickly—the UK government is going to win.
“We feel that’s what we’ve done.  We know where we want to go.”

QUESTION:  Tell about the transition to the Prime Minister Theresa May.
The US has presidential election and new administration takes office three months later.  By contrast, the Theresa May administration was in place four weeks later.

Q/A:  With Article 50, there will be two years in transition.  
There are three aspects: (1) The EU agreement;  (2) Trade with others; 
and more subtly (3) Foreign policy and security, including immigration.
[An immigration policy is yet to be crafted, weighing politic vs economic issues.]

There are different trade models of different nations—UK will design their own.

Q: About Scotland
A: PM May tells Scotland’s leader that UK won’t sign until everyone is in agreement.  

With Ireland, there has been armed smuggling across the border, a volatile challenge.
There will be more trust, and nobody wants to go back to those days.
Have everyone around the table help define border rules, technical or wheelbarrow.

Q/A:  The UK-US special relationship doesn’t change, nor should it.
“The UK will be a little more nimble in foreign affairs.”

Q/A:  The UK government will design a model that will maximize free trade w/borders.

Q/A:  For the UK, the EU block is their biggest trading partner, and should continue.
There are British workers on the European continent—will have appropriate regulation.
“We don’t want to stop.”  With prioritization, it will be a mutual decision.
We will continue to have a great deal of movement, but controlled movement.


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