The RNC of the GOP, Republican National Committee of the Grand Olde Party, think and say that they are in charge of their own political party. The have 'Rule 40' that was put in to benefit Mitt Romney, but they may change that rule the week or day before the national convention in Cleveland Ohio July 18-21, 2016.
They could then just choose the (1) Nominee; (2) VP Nominee; and (3) Platform for the 2016 general election, to run against the Democrat(ic) Party replacement for HRClinton. This would be the old-style 'Brokered Convention' where the main (1) Nominee is decided in a 'smoke-filled room'.
On the other hand, an 'open convention' requires repeated voting. Delegates are 'bound' to vote on the first ballot for how they were selected, and released on subsequent votes.
This all becomes moot if Donald J. Trump achieves 1,237 (simple majority) before Convention. Of course, Ted Cruz could also achieve the number to grasp the gold ring, but there is a 50/50 chance we arrive at Cleveland Convention with a plurality (the most but not majority) and we feel that Trump would like the challenge and drama.
What are your thoughts and comments?
Thursday, March 17, 2016
Saturday, March 12, 2016
Run up to 1,237 Delegates {25 states are yet to vote}
Run
up to 1,237 Delegates {25 states are
yet to vote, 3-11-2016}
Voting Total State
Trump %
Trump Running Cruz
% Cruz
Running
Date Deleg Abbr. popula Deleg Total popular Del Total
-Mar11 825 463 463 362 362
Mar12 19m DC/G ?? ?17?
480 ?x? xx xx
Mar15 99 FL
100 99 579 xx xx xx
Mar15 69 IL
100 69 648 xx xx xx
Mar15 52 MO
100
52 700 xx xx xx
Mar15 72p NC ??
36? 736 36? xx 398
Mar15 66 OH
--- 0 xx --- 0 xx
Mar22 9 AS
100 ? xx xx xx xx xx
Mar22 58 AZ
100x xx xx 100y 58 456
Mar22 40 UT
20m xx xx 80m 80 496
Apr5 42 WI
100 42 778 xx xx xx
Apr19 95 NY
100m 95-15 873 xx xx+15 xx
Apr26 28 CT
100m 28-8 901
xx xx+8 xx
Apr26 16 DE
100 16 917 xx xx xx
Apr26 38 MD
100 38 955 xx xx xx
Apr26 71 PA
100 71 1026 xx xx xx
Apr26 19p RI ??
?9? 1035 ?? 10?
506
May3 57 IN
100 57 1092 xx xx xx
May10 33 NE
100x xx xx 100y 33 539
May10 34 WV
100 34 1126 xx xx xx
May17 28p OR ??
14? 1140 ?? 14?
553
May24 44p WA ?? m
22? +3 1162 ?? 22? -3
575
Jun7 27 MT
100x xx xx 100y 27 602
Jun7 29 SD
100x xx xx 100y 29 631
Jun7 24p NM ?? x
5 1167 ?? 19
670
Jun7 51 NJ
100 51 1218 xx xx xx
Jun7 172 CA 100
172 1380
xx xx 670
Where in the world is ::: ND,
WY, (??=some questions)
x/y = win-uncertain w/no-polling, yet. m=winner-take-most.
Look to Donald J. Trump to go into Convention with ~1,380
delegates (after CA votes);
and Senator Ted Cruz in 2nd-place with less
than half of that. These are
projections.
Do not look for any RNC efforts to take the nomination
away from delegate voting .!.
The next president will be President Trump or
President Cruz; HRC is unelectable.
.
Wednesday, March 9, 2016
Closed-door VS Open-Convention (NRC rule change?)
The Olde "smoke-filled room" won't happen[edit]
Rule 40 says that votes will happen until someone reaches the simple majority of delegates (1237). I heard Ted Cruz say today that selecting the Republican nominee to run in the general election would lead to an uprising if it is done in a Smoke-filled room. In this, he was clearly mistaken. The RNC could change the rule, and probably will, but it will still come to voting over and over. On the other hand, it is noted that the week or so before the Convention, the RNC will meet and decide any rule changes, such as allowing any candidate with at least one delegate won to be allowed on the first ballot. That could prevent Trump or Cruz (current leaders) from achieving the simple majority on the first ballot. However, they would probably come to the same conclusion after the third vote. Another scenario would be for two candidates to team, POTUS/VP, to exceed the 1,237 delegate majority. This can all be documented in the current news, but why not wait a week until winner-take-all voting takes place in Illinois, Florida, and Ohio? Also, wait until someone exceeds the simple majority and "The Establishment" (so-called) decides to change the rules anyway to try to exclude Trump or Cruz. (Hannity says that what applies to hating Trump also applies to Cruz, the outsiders.)
Thursday, March 3, 2016
Republican Debate in Detroit FoxNews 3/3/2016
Republican
Debate in Detroit FoxNews 3/3/2016
Moderating: Bret Baier, Megyn
Kelly, and Chris Wallace.
Candidate hopefuls: Trump, Ted Cruz, Rubio, Kasich.
Federal News Service transcription:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/04/us/politics/transcript-of-the-republican-presidential-debate-in-detroit.html
Since you can fast forward through the video and
word-search
the transcript, we will give the main topics presented and the main
comments from the four candidates. We
will provide a little ‘color
commentary’ but expect you to be watching and see that for yourselves. Look for further discussion on our new
website: http://ConserveThot.blogspot.com where
you also can argue back and forth.
We really like Ted Cruz putting in the next nominees to the Supreme
Court, but expect Donald Trump to roll on.
ABC means Anybody But Clinton and she is already convicted in the Court of Public
Opinion. Anyone the Democrats have will
be beaten in a landslide by Trump, Cruz, or Rubio, hands down!
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
= = = = = = = = = = = = =
FoxNews INTRODUCTIONS:
Partnering with Facebook with 52million checking in.
60sec answers, 30sec re-butt. “Be
respectful, like a Red Wings hockey game.”
MAIN TOPIC: Romney’s comment, directed to Trump (asked
by Chris Wallace)
Trump: He failed and lost to
Obama. I believe in Free Trade, not when they beat us with imbalance, etc. “We will make great trade deals”
MAIN TOPIC: What are your views on the Ku Klux Klan?
Trump: Take a look at my Twitter
account. [Chris Wallace gives a friendly
smile]
MAIN TOPIC: You mocked Trump with ‘small hands’ etc.
Rubio: He deserves to be
attacked that way; I would prefer to
have a policy debate.
Trump: I take back calling him a
light-weight; look at these hands. [Big]
MAIN TOPIC: [Lynnette was coughing and I missed the
question about Trump vs Ted Cruz]
Cruz: This is not about the
insults; This is about JOBS. People are interested in solutions, not
slogans.
Trump: I’ve heard him say over and over and I’ve won three, he’s being
beaten badly.
Rubio: 2/3 of the people don’t vote for him; he is not Conservative.
Trump: Very nice words but
happen to be wrong. National poll: He’s
at 15, he’s at 14, I’m at 49%.
MAIN TOPIC: Do you buy Romney’s blueprint?
Kasich: Democrats tell me all
the time that I can get the crossovers, as the adult on the stage.
MAIN TOPIC: What jobs have you created?
Rubio: Go on my website to see
real policies.
Trump: This little guy has lied so much about my record. My sister thought it amazing.
Rubio: The answer is that he is not
going to do it. (Bring manufacturing
back from Mexico.)
[Rush Limbaugh said that a strategy for Rubio would be to egg Trump to
making a bad statement.]
MAIN TOPIC: Trump proposed tax cut to add $10TRILLION;
be specific what to cut
Trump: Common Core;
Environmental Protection; waste, fraud, abuse; Larry Kudlow likes my plan.
[Graphic shows $544 Billion deficit]
We don’t bid properly with Pharmaceuticals.
[Another full screen graphic] We’ll
save $300billion/year if we negotiate.
MAIN TOPIC: Who will collect the taxes if you abolish
the IRS?
Cruz: They are so corrupt, put
it on a postcard. Let me go back to the lack of specificity. I have given a plan that will cut
$500billion. Donald Trump has been part
of the corruption in D.C.
Trump: I have been supporting
politicians on many sides for years, I wasn’t a politician. Etc. We need people to break gridlock and get
things done.
MAIN TOPIC: Is Trump wrong saying not to increase the
Minimum Wage?
Kasich: I’m the only person on
stage that balanced the budget. Use common sense. Etc. I
won.
MAIN TOPIC: Immigration
Cruz: Look to the actual
record. Donald Trump gave $50,000 to
Gang of Eight. Why?
Trump: I’m doing 120 deals
outside of the United States. Soon
children will take over.
MAIN TOPIC: The New York Times interview, and
flexibility in deporting
Trump: Off-the-record is a very important
thing. There is always some
tug-and-pull, negotiation.
MAIN TOPIC: After Gang of Eight, you still seem to not
Rubio: I absolutely want to
solve this situation; I did the best
with the Senate that was then.
Trump: Sheriff Arpaio supports
me. Rubio give-and-take is OK.
Break for commercial: Last Q was
from Megyn: Will you allow releasing The
NYTimes tape?
Trump doubles-down like a negotiator and teases them, “I will not do
that.” [serious face.]
MAIN TOPIC: Visas for highly-skilled or not?
Trump: I’m changing; I’m
changing. We need to keep the
brain-power after they graduate here.
MAIN TOPIC: You reversed yourself, you declined to join
H1D abuse.
Cruz: I’ll call for an
audit. It is not dissimilar with Donald’s
hotel in Florida. How many worked as a
waiter? [He asks the audience, and
everyone claps, cheers, and raises a hand.]
Trump: I’ve had tens of
thousands; short season; It’s legal and we bring them in, and out.
Cruz: That’s not accurate.
Americans wanted the jobs. Etc. [“wrong”,
Trump interjects]
Trump: This is what other hotels
do … [Cruz wants the tape released: “You’re the liar” says Trump.]
[The audience is yelling and no one can understand what they are
saying. They yell to each other.]
MAIN TOPIC: ISIS and ground troops in Syria
Rubio: It will require Special
Ops and air strikes.
Kasich: I helped Rumsfeld with
his problems. Libya is a desert. Work
with Muslim friends. Etc. Take care of
the job in Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, and then come home.
MAIN TOPIC: Military will refuse to carry out extreme interrogation
Trump: They won’t refuse me, believe
me. They are chopping off heads. Waterboarding is fine. Can you imagine these animals that chop off
heads and see us talking about waterboarding.
That is what leaders do.
[Addresses the families of the terrorists, watching their husbands on
TV.]
Cruz: Yelling doesn’t make you a
tough guy. Reagan generated jobs,
rebuilt the military, and won the Cold War;
I will do the same thing. If they
wage Jihad against America, they sign their death warrant.
MAIN TOPIC: Snowden and treason, you waited to condemn
Cruz: Start with the facts
first, and pass judgement later. He fled
to Russia, China, undermined us.
MAIN TOPIC: Who would you get for Anti-Terrorism.
Trump: [xxx] I said from the beginning that Snowden was a
spy.
Kasich: I knew Ronald
Reagan. You can take it from there.
[Another commercial break.]
MAIN TOPIC: Megyn asks about reversing and shows clips
on war answers …
Trump: I was always against
going into Iraq; nuclear weapons changed
the game. Etc.
Trump: At first they were
talking about small number of Syrian immigrants. Safe zones there.
[Dust up with Megyn and Rubio challenging Trump on an ongoing legal
action with Trump University. They pound him over and over with what they
perceive as ‘facts’ and Donald says let’s see after it is resolved in three
years. He gets really beat up on this one.
Trump says he doesn’t cave.]
Cruz: Is this the debate you
want in the general election? [Trump, “Oh,
stop it.”]
Cruz: Count to ten, Donald. Come join us—we want you on our team. [Cheers]
Megyn goes to Kasich “Let’s come together and stop fighting” to go to
commercial break. The audience cheers
the statement of Kasich. We’ll see if
that translated to votes in Ohio, winner-take-all on March 15 where Trump now
leads by double-digits.
MAIN TOPIC: Why haven’t Republicans done more with water
in Flynt Michigan?
Rubio: Accountability is
important, and it wasn’t political. Ensure it never happens again.
MAIN TOPIC: Should gov’t bail out the schools?
Kasich: They came to me in Ohio.
MAIN TOPIC: Detroit was the symbol of U.S. manufacturing
might, not now. Be specific.
Cruz: 60 yrs of failed Leftwing
policy. [History] It is an outrage,
media should report it.
SOCIAL ISSUES [Clip of Kasich vs
GAY marriage dissenters.]
MAIN TOPIC: GAY is the law of the land, What of Adoption
Cruz: It should be a state
decision. There is no compromise like
another on this stage.
Trump: He is right. Most people would prefer to leave it to the
states.
MAIN TOPIC: Scalia talked about guns
Rubio: The Second Amendment is
in the Constitution for a reason.
Criminals don’t follow the laws.
MAIN TOPIC: [Trump changed his mind and now doesn’t ban
assault weapons]
Trump: If Paris had guns, you
would not have had 130 people killed.
Cruz: He would compromise on the
Supreme Court. [“I did not say that” adds Trump.]
Trump: He supported John Roberts,
the primary supporter, who let us down on Obamacare.
Cruz: Breathe, breathe,
breathe, I wrote one opEd, and I wouldn’t
have nominated him.
Rubio makes some comment we missed and smiles to audience applause.
[Commercial ads, including the new movie “Risen” which is amazing, for
the faithful.]
MAIN TOPIC: Tell Mr Trump why he isn’t prepared on
Foreign Policy.
Rubio: Etc. Much of our future now depends on it. Millennials can be the greatest generation.
Trump: I’ve gotten to know Marco
and he is not a leader. They will do as I tell them (in military.)
Rubio: One again, he didn’t
respond with policy. North Korea has a lunatic.
[Arguing next]
Trump: Wouldn’t it be nice if we got along with Russia, China? Etc.
MAIN TOPIC: Sanctions on North Korea
Cruz: The Clinton Adm failed and
lifted sanctions. Now it is harder. Move
carriers to So.China sea. Etc.
[Break. Graphic of Facebook:
Trump(60%); Cruz(18%); Rubio(11%); Carson(7%); Kasich(4%)]
[[So for the last month conversations, Ben Carson was beating Kasich in
the conversations.]]
LAST QUESTION OF THE NIGHT: THE
RNC PLEDGE: “Will you support the
nominee?”
Rubio: She lied to the families
of the victims of Benghazi.
Cruz: I made a promise, I will
fight for your rights.
Kasich: I’ll be the
nominee. [cheers]
Trump: Even if it’s not me? Millions and millions have come in; Democrats
are losing. Yes, I will.
Closing Statements:
Kasich: I have a record, not
just talk/theory. We’ve left no one
behind in Ohio.
Rubio: Problems in America;
embrace opportunities, if we get this election right.
Cruz: To every soldier; Mom & Dad; Immoral to send to battle with arms tied. I…will…have…your…back!!!
Trump: We will bring JOBS back,
and you will be very proud of America.
Thank you.
[Trump shakes everyone’s hand but Rubio doesn’t open his, so Trump
gives him a fist bump.]
[Kasich doesn’t want a photo of shaking hands w/Rubio, so he gives him
an elbow bump.]
Bottom Line: Rubio says he’ll
win in Florida; and Kasich says he will win in Ohio.
“Who won the Debate?” DrudgeReport voting: Trump(66%); Cruz(20%);
Kasich(9%); Rubio(5%).
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