Economics and Security in Asia (Two-day Conference)

Looking at Asia's Future: Economics and Security

 

The Future of Asia Conference held by the Los Angeles World Affairs Council on Thursday Sept 15th  began on an upbeat note, with a panel of 10 speakers from all over Asia giving mostly optimistic assessments of what they thought Asia would look like in 2030.  Each speaker was given just three minutes to talk, and most chose to highlight the effects of rapid economic growth that is predicted to expand the middle class in Asia to some 3 billion people by 2030.  Liu Ming from the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences said that while China today is a significant regional power, by 2030 it will be a global power, "more open and self-confident."  Shivshankar Menon, a former national security adviser to the Indian Prime Minister, said that by 2030 India will be the most populous country in the world, overtaking China, and will likely have the third largest economy - but cautioned the country "would need to grow by 8 - 10% every year for decades if we want to have enough jobs for the 11-12 million new entrants int the labor force every year. 

Many speakers underlined the importance of continued US engagement in the region.  Bilahari Kausikan, ambassador-at-large in the Singaporean Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said that South East Asian countries "want to have the best possible relationship with both the US and China, and do not want to have to choose between them - the US will play a vital role in maintaining this balance."

 

Tatsuo Yamasaki, former vice finance minister in Japan, pointed out that continued growth in Asia will mean an enormous increase in energy consumption.  In order to avoid widespread environmental damage, there is an "important need for more advanced energy technologies."  And looking forward to the future of China in 2030, Arthur Kroeber an economic analyst who runs Gavekal Dragonomics, painted two alternative scenarios.  In the first, China succeeds with its economic reforms and by 2030 it is the world's largest economy and the technological hub for the world and the center of a new geopolitical order in Asia.  In his second scenario, China fails to reform, and "we will be saying the same thing about China in 2030 as we said about Japan in 2000 - why did it go off the rails?"

When asked about the future of Japan-Chinese relations which have been troubled recently, both SASS's Liu Ming and Tatsuo Yamasaki said that despite the political differences between the two countries, they would have to learn to live together.  "I think our countries are both very smart," said Liu Ming.  "We will have half competition and half cooperation."  And Yamasaki said, despite the areas where they disagree, both countries' economies are closely linked.  "We cannot live without each other."

 

At dinner Admiral Harry Harris, the overall commander of the US Pacific Command, gave a keynote speech during which he paid tribute to the economic growth of Asia "which has lifted 1 billion people out of poverty", and said this was made possible by the rules-based security architecture in the region, which has been underwritten by the US military presence.  Harris, who commands 380,000 personnel and who is responsible for half of the earth's surface, from the west coast of the US to the west of India, said the US military alliances were crucial, and singled out one particularly bright area which is the growing US-India relationship.  In terms of challenges, Admiral Harris said that it is clear that as ISIS gets pushed out of Syria and Iraq they will seek to move to Asia, where there are some 700 million Muslims, more than in the Middle East.  "Most of these Muslims want to live in peace, but a small minority of extremists" can cause enormous harm.  Already this year there have been ISIS-inspired attacks in Bangladesh, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines.  "It is clear that ISIS is trying to rebalance to the Asia-Pacific."

Asia 2030 Panel

He also expressed concern about North Korea - "the only nation to have tested nuclear weapons this century."  He said "I want you to stop for a minute and think about this - combining nuclear warheads with ballistic missiles in the hands of a volatile leader like Kim Jong-Un is a recipe for disaster."  He called on China to do more to pressure Pyongyang, and said he also prioritized US-S Korean-Japan cooperation against N Korea.

On China, Admiral Harris said that there are positive areas of cooperation in anti-piracy patrols and some joint exercises, but that China still contributes to tensions in the sea and has not done enough to reign in N Korea. 

He said that the rebalancing to Asia, from a military perspective, has been very successful, and by 2020 the US will have 60% of its navy, 60% of its air force and 66% of the Marine Corps strike force in Asia.  But he said that to maintain US military superiority he would like to see an end to sequestration, which forces cuts on military spending.  He also said that the proposed TPP free trade agreement with Asia would help to increase security, "because nations that trade together are more closely bound to each other."   Overall, as PACOM commander, he said that "I want to confront all the challenges (in Asia) from a position of strength," - which meant not just more weapons, but better technology.

The conference continues on Friday 16th, with the first talk at 8.30 am.